Summary – National Heat Pump Market Trend Report 2026
1. Market Overview & Key Figures (2025–2026)
- Market growth: Residential heat pump sales (excluding air conditioning) increased by 9%, from 125,000 units in 2024 to 136,000 units in 2025. The 2026 outlook remains highly flexible due to market uncertainty, with a base forecast of 157,000 units (range: 106,000–216,000 units).
- Installed thermal capacity: In 2025, a total of 1,017 MW of thermal capacity was installed, slightly down from 1,054 MW in 2024. Cumulative installed capacity reached 7.8 GW in 2025 and is expected to grow to approximately 8.9 GW in 2026.
- Total installed systems: By the end of 2025, the Netherlands had 880,000 installed heat pumps. The base scenario for 2026 predicts that the country will surpass 1 million operational heat pump systems, reaching approximately 1,028,000 units.
- Commercial sector: The commercial and non-residential market grew by 5% in 2025 to 439 MW (up from 417 MW in 2024). The base scenario forecasts a record 562 MW for 2026.
- Air conditioning and heating: Sales of air conditioners (air-to-air heat pumps) increased by 5.6% in 2025 to 283,000 units. By the end of 2025, 2.2 million air conditioners were installed in the Netherlands, with research indicating that around 85% are actively used for heating as well.
2. Shift in Heat Pump System Types
- All-electric heat pumps: Sales increased significantly from 73,000 units in 2024 to 86,000 units in 2025. By the end of 2025, 77% of individual residential heat pump systems were all-electric.
- Hybrid heat pumps: Despite their central role in Dutch government policy, sales declined slightly from 45,000 units in 2024 to 43,000 units in 2025, representing 23% of the residential market. Additional policy support is expected in 2026, with a base forecast of 44,000 units.
- Technology trends: Air-to-water heat pumps remained stable at 104,000 units in 2025. Ground-source (water-to-water) heat pumps recovered strongly, increasing from 16,000 units in 2024 to 25,000 units in 2025, driven mainly by highly insulated new-build homes.
3. Subsidies, Regional Distribution & European Trade
- ISDE subsidy scheme: In 2025, approved ISDE subsidy applications increased by 17% to 123,000 applications, representing 646 MW of installed capacity. Of these, 73% were submitted by private homeowners and 27% by businesses. The ISDE budget for 2026 is €500 million.
- Regional distribution: In absolute numbers, the highest adoption was seen in densely populated provinces such as North Brabant (17%) and South Holland (14%). However, when measured per 100 households, adoption in the Randstad remains the lowest (below 1%). Municipalities with the highest concentration of heat pumps are Tubbergen (16.2%) and Drechterland (16.0%).
- European trade: The EU trades approximately five times more air conditioners (€10 billion) than heat pumps (€2.5 billion). China is the EU’s largest import partner, supplying 67% of heat pumps and 54% of air conditioners. The Netherlands plays a strategic role as a logistics hub, distributing 20% of all EU air conditioner imports.
4. Future Outlook & Market Challenges (Towards 2030)
- 2030 market scenarios: Annual sales in 2030 could range from 76,000 units (low scenario) to 237,000 units (high scenario). The base scenario projects 147,000 units, consisting of 81,000 hybrid and 66,000 all-electric heat pumps.
- Government targets: Under the current forecast of 1.55 million installed heat pumps by 2030, including 455,000 hybrid systems, the Dutch government’s target of 1 million hybrid heat pumps will not be achieved.
- Policy uncertainty (“the carrot”): Uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the ISDE subsidy after 2030, combined with the abolition of the net metering scheme from 2027, is reducing consumer confidence.
- Regulation (“the stick”): The Dutch government intends to introduce a requirement from 2029 for hybrid heat pumps in locations where district heating is not a viable alternative.
- Geopolitics & energy prices: Conflicts in the Middle East and the suspension of LNG production in Qatar caused natural gas prices to rise rapidly in early 2026, from €32/MWh to €52/MWh. This has increased the economic attractiveness of heat pumps.
5. The Installation Industry in Transition
- Labour shortage: The shortage of qualified technicians remains structural, with more than 70,000 technical vacancies in 2025. Nearly half of technicians under the age of 25 leave the sector within their first year.
- New F-Gas legislation & certification: From 29 September 2025, certification (A1/A2, B or C) became mandatory for working with natural refrigerants. From 2027, synthetic refrigerants (F-gases) will be banned in heat pump systems with a capacity of up to 12 kW.
- Natural refrigerants: The market is rapidly transitioning to Propane (R290), a natural, PFAS-free refrigerant that enables high supply temperatures of 75–80°C, making it particularly suitable for the renovation market.
- Digitalisation & prefab solutions: The industry is seeing increased adoption of prefabricated installation solutions, enabling faster on-site installation despite heavier components. At the same time, Remote Asset Management is becoming standard practice through remote monitoring, AI-driven energy management systems (EMS), and automated heating curve optimisation.